Step 1. Business understanding

Giovanni Moretti is the owner of the local pizzeria '' La Luna Rossa'', here in Venlo.

Lately he has beet struggling with placing orders for the needed products because of the unpredictability of the demand. Sometimes he orders too much nd ends up throwing away a lot of raw materials. Other times, he faces shortages and ends up lossing profit because he is unable to deliver.

Giovanni has data of the demand over the last 52 weeks and he wants a forecast model that will predict the demand for three weeks ahead. The lead time from his supplier is three week, this is why he wants to predict the demand for three weeks from now, so he knows how much to order.

Identify trend

Identify seasonality

Remove trend

Modeling

Data Understanding